The P-Value

State Budget Crisis

2010-12-21T16:01:00.004-08:00

Good 60 Minutes episode on the State Budget Crisis. I'm not a Meredith Whitney fan and am not convinced of her doomsday prediction, but there is no doubt times are very tough for States. Poor financial management among the States cannot be hidden any longer. The fact is the US has an appetite for benefits and entitlements that exceeds its appetite to pay taxes. Either taxes go up or entitlements go down (or both). I continue to hear more about State's moving to more of a 401k style retirement system rather than the traditional pension system, which I think makes a lot of sense. The burden of the pension system is just too expensive for the State's to bear and mismanagement of the system ends up costing everyone more in the longrun.

I think because each State is required to balance its budget every year the defaults will not be as severe as some believe. According to Moody's, only 0.09% of Munibonds have defaulted in 40 years, which is 54 issues out of 18,400. This compares to about 2.5% of investment grade corporate defaults over the same time horizon.

From WikiChina

2010-12-01T10:56:00.004-08:00

Tom Friedman has given up trying to speak rationally to people about the problems America faces. Since no one appears to be listening he has moved to writing in satire. It might be funny if it wasn't so true.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/01/opinion/01friedman.html?src=me&ref=general

I Want My Salesforce.com

2010-11-17T15:13:00.000-08:00

Thank You Uncle Sam: Warren Buffett

2010-11-17T13:22:00.003-08:00

Great letter from Warren Buffett. Good perspective. While many things in the government are very frustrating I think it is worth taking a step back to acknowledge the situation could have been much, much worse if the government had not acted as they did. No, it was not perfect. We are left with many unintentional consequences and difficult long-term challenges, but I believe history will show that by making the tough choices to restore confidence the Government was able to avert an even greater crisis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1

Getting Serious about the Deficit

2010-11-10T10:38:00.003-08:00

I'm encouraged to see this commission discussing the right issues about lowering the deficit. It drives me crazy hearing all these politicians and protesters talk about lowering the deficit with absolutely no suggestions on how to do it. When pressed these people talk about 'wasteful government spending and unnessary projects'. Okay..fine. I agree, but when we are talking about a potential $20 trillion deficit, focusing on a few $20-100 million programs will amount to nothing in making a dent in the real issue.

Unless, politicians and/or the public are talking about cutting Defense, Medicare/Medicaid, and Social Security spending then they are not seriously talking about cutting the deficit. Let's hope this commission makes progress in moving the discussion forward to address the real structural problems.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/deficit-reduction-panel-s-plan-would-seek-to-cut-social-security-medicare.html

Deficits: Taxing The Rich

2010-11-01T12:39:00.002-07:00

Great segment on 60 Minutes, interviewing David Stockman, former budget director for Reagan. Worth watching.

Dysfunction Junction

2010-10-27T11:04:00.002-07:00

A couple of links to some articles I recommend reading. Both refer to the complete dysfunction going on in our political system. It's hard to have much faith in the system when its constant finger pointing and no one, but Jon Stewart seems capable of rationally discussing the issues.

Great Op-Ed from Tom Friedman
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/opinion/27friedman.html?hp

The November Investment Outlook from Bill Gross
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx

Buffett quote on Gold

2009-12-16T11:06:00.003-08:00

Great quote!

From Financial Times article - Warren Buffett, the legendary investor who has been a gold agnostic over the years, once said that bullion had “no utility”. He added: “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it.” Mr Buffett’s conclusion: “Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

Daily Show on Gold

2009-12-14T07:48:00.003-08:00

Hilarious!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

Beck - Not So Mellow Gold

http://www.thedailyshow.com/

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor

Health Care Crisis

Problem with FHA

2009-09-04T13:36:00.003-07:00

Good article on FHA today in the WSJ. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125202440174685297.html

The most telling line of this whole article was this, "Insurance from the New Deal-era agency has enabled lending to buyers who can't make a big down payment or who want to refinance but have little equity."

"Little equity" was what got us into this mess in the first place! Now, I agree we need to keep liquidity flowing into the housing market or we will get caught in a negative feedback loop leading to a frozen housing market. However, I believe if you can not afford a 20% downpayment, you probably can't and shouldn't be able to afford the house. Liquidity continues to be provided by Fannie and Freddie through conventional mortgages that require adequate amounts of equity from the buyer. FHA is just another way our society continues to subsidize higher real estate values from those who cannot afford a home. The other disturbing line from this article was showing how much they increased the caps on home values that qualify for FHA loans. Increasing the amount of first time homebuyers into the market by loosening FHA standards is not going to lead us to a healthy housing market in the long-term.

Defining Success

2009-07-29T16:09:00.004-07:00

Some excellent observations about success, failure and how society views them. At the very least this lecture will challenge you to question your own definition of success. It appears to echo Joseph Campbell's "Follow your bliss." philosophy, which I really enjoy.

Surviving the 'End of Civilization'

2009-07-28T12:14:00.003-07:00

Quite an amusing piece by Barton Biggs on how to invest for the End of Civilization. Here are his six new rules to position yourself for survivial. I have a link to the full article in the title. Position your portfolio appropritely :)

"Six New Rules till the End of Civilization 2050."

1. Greed is really good

Yes, if you are going to follow the same advice as the rich, you and your family always come first. Grab more than your share, many times what's fair. No remorse, because 2050 is coming sooner than you think. Create a protective wall of money and resources that will make whatever time's left as comfortable as possible.

2. Invest in Goldman Sachs and its Wall Street co-conspirators

Seriously, these guys are the poster boys for the word "greed." The Goldman Gang, Goldman Conspiracy, whatever you call them, these guys just took control of Washington and the Treasury; their rapid recovery is proof that "greed is great." Do what they do. Amass as much capital and goods as possible, ignoring the rest of us, then cruise to the finish line.

3. Frugality, stockpiling, hoarding

"The Millionaire Next Door" says it's very simple: "Frugal Frugal Frugal! ... Millionaires live well below their means ... Being frugal is the cornerstone of wealth-building." That way you can stash away lots more for later when the going gets rough, when others attack to get what you've stockpiled.

4. Return to your roots

Remember Biggs' advice about subsistence farming. Survival instincts and personal ingenuity will be your best investment. Your family could be without electricity, water, gasoline in the final days, so keep "well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson."

5. Global warfare, plus ammo and guns

Five years ago Fortune did report on the "Pentagon's Weather Nightmare." Yes, the military warned of "the mother of all national security issues" as "the planet's carrying capacity shrinks, an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies." So invest in the defense industries America needs as the rest of the world reacts more to our greed.

6. Accept death

Back in 1973, my first year at Morgan Stanley, I read Ernest Becker's brilliant Pulitzer Prize winner, "The Denial of Death." Today his message is even more powerful: Yes we will all die, tomorrow. But to enjoy the days left, you must accept death today ... accept even now as behavioral economists warn us that our brains are our own worst enemy, as well as the planet's, for we are on a self-destruct path of no return.

Naked Short Selling

2009-07-27T20:38:00.004-07:00

Finally a ban on naked short selling is beginning to be discussed. I cannot believe its taken so long for the SEC to do something about this absolutely criminal practice. Unfortunately I think these types of manipulative trades happen much more often than people in the industry are willing to admit.

Your Home is Not an Investment

2009-07-17T15:18:00.009-07:00

Decent article in the WSJ today. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203739404574290052495887922.html

This should not be surprising to people given the current state of the housing market, but it amazes me how many people still view their house as an investment. After adding in maintenance, property taxes, remodeling costs and the opportunity cost I am very skeptical owning your own home makes financial sense. However, with anything it depends on what you pay. Its a purchase made on leverage and when buying anything on leverage your returns are amplified to the up-side and down-side. Taking on excess leverage (debt) involves more risk. As an investor if you are taking on more risk you should be compensated for that risk by purchasing at a discount. Perhaps the best way to value a home would be to value it as many REIT's are valued.

Net Operating Income/Cap Rate

If comparable homes rent for $1500 a month, lets just simply say the annual NOI is $18,000. Cap rates fluctuate given the health of the market, investor required return, etc. However, 7% is probably a conservative cap rate.

$18,000/7% = $257,142

I'll fully admit its a very simplistic way to look at it, but it could be helpful in coming up with a rough appraisal. I would also tack on a discount to that price to compensate for the leverage incurred. Perhaps, its not realistic in todays world with todays prices, but there are a number of ways real estate values have and continue to be artificially inflated. Not knocking anyone for owning their own home. It certainly can make economic sense depending on the price and in many instances personal reasons can constitute enough justification to pay more of a premium. However, if you are viewing your home as an investment then perhaps it would help to think about it more this way.

2009-07-13T12:34:00.004-07:00

Interesting video on recent commercial real estate trends. Outlook is not looking pretty. Prices have not been written down far enough and lack of liquidity in the credit market is making it near impossible to refinance these projects. Probably some excellent opportunities for buyers from distressed sellers.

Sailing School

2007-06-28T16:15:00.000-07:00

This weekend I am going up to a sailing school in the San Juan Islands. Should be fun. I hope I can remember how to tie all these different knots!

V. Tech and Gun Control Debate

2007-04-18T06:58:00.000-07:00

I am very angry about what happened at Virginia Tech. Horrible, horrible tragedy and my prayers are with the victims and their families.

Unfortunately, it takes an event like this to happen before certain issues are brought back to the forefront of people's mind. The gun control debate is back in the headlines. It amazes me how divergent the views are on this issue and how passionately people defend their stance. Some people believe that every American should be carrying a gun and others believe no one should be.

I respect that people have the right to own and possess guns, but I believe there is truly something wrong with the current system when it is easier to purchase a gun than to obtain a drivers license. I don't know the figures, but it would be interesting to see what the key reasons are for people to buy a gun. Lets say the following are the key reasons for the majority of gun purchases 1.) hunting 2.) defense 3.) sport (target shooting) 4.) collection

How many Americans who own guns fall into 1,3, and 4 (gun enthusiasts)? How many into 2? Of those people who buy a gun for defense, how many have actually had to use it? How many accidents occur among that group of the population? Does that group have a higher probability of hurting themselves or their children hurting themselves by having a gun in the house rather than actually using it for protection? An interesting study for Freakonomics 2nd edition.

The one statistic I have heard is that last year in Britain, 59 people were killed due to gun violence. In New York City alone, 579 people were killed due to gun violence. Something is certainly wrong with this picture and I don't believe the right answer is more guns in the hands of more people.

I have friends who hunt and own guns. I have no problem with responsible gun ownership. However, more restrictions should be in place to ensure that those individuals who decide to purchase a gun can handle and understand the responsibility that comes with it. Personally, I don't like guns and will never own one.

Despite the Ups and Downs, Zags Made Strides

2007-03-19T07:36:00.001-07:00

After everything the Zags went through this season I don't feel too bad about the loss to Indiana. I certainly wish they had played harder and I'm completely perplexed as to why Micah Downs only played 19 minutes. Seriously, the second leading scorer after the loss of Heytvelt... I hope Mark Few takes some notes from Tony Bennett at WSU on how to play defense. GU is such an offensive powerhouse that if the team could even turn it up a little more defensively it would make all the difference.

That being said I'm happy for this years Zags and they made significant strides as a team at times when it would have been easy to quit. A lot of positives to look at for next year. Pendo is an absolute beast. As I was discussing with some fellow GU alum, Pendo has made it into my top five all-time favorite Zags. He truly embodies what the program is all about and will make an excellent senior leader on next years team.

GO ZAGS!

Its a shame...

2007-02-14T07:03:00.000-08:00

The Zags season has been turned upside down by the drug charges against Josh Heytvelt and Theo Davis. Its really unfortunate to see Gonzaga's name dragged through the mud. Hopefully, Josh and Theo will be alright and they will be able to put this all behind them.

As far as the Zags season goes this year, its certainly up in the air at this point. The team has to use this experience to bring them closer together. Big game against Memphis this weekend. I kind of like seeing the Zags being back as underdog. Also, wanted to mention that I was very impressed with Santa Clara the other night. They are a very good basketball team and its unfortuante to see Dick Davey being pushed out as head coach.

Go Zags!

Matt Bouldin is the Truth

2006-12-04T08:32:00.000-08:00

The Zags have exceeded my expectations so far this year. The win over Texas last Saturday was very impressive. When this team is clicking they can beat anyone. Their style of play is also very exciting. Its so nice to see a Zag team that actually plays defense (I still hate our zone though).

Matt Bouldin, has been my favorite player to watch. His first game he went out and shot 5-5 from the floor, showed some remarkable passing skills, and solid rebounding. It will be great to follow him as he continues to develop.

Go Zags!!! Paul's Pre-season Analysis

2006-11-06T15:55:00.000-08:00

Offense
The Zags start the season as a big "?" as the team currently lacks an identity having lost its top two scorers. Look for Senior guard Derek Raivio to take the lead and play more in the off-guard position early in games to increase his offensive production. Sophmore Jermey Pargo will likely share point guard duties with Raivio in what is sure to be a fast paced Run-n-Gun type offense. Expect to see more of an old school Zags style of play where there is no hesitation for a lot 3's to be put up.

If the Zags are to be successful Center Josh Heytvelt must be aggressive and establish a solid inside presence along with Senior Sean Mallon. Heytvelt will take over as the Zags new leading scorer, but not by much. Expect to see a much more balanced scoring attack with 4 or 5 guys in double figures nightly.

Defense
Defensively, this will be a more focused team than in previous years. With the teams better overall speed look for a lot of defensive pressure to create more points off turnovers. Junior Guard P-Mac will be the team's key defensive stopper along with a hopefully soon to be healthy Larry Gurganious. I hope to see this team play more man-to-man defense especially late in games, although, Coach Few has been overly committed to living and dying by zone. This has left the Zags especially open to 3-point shooting teams. A lot depends on Josh Heytvelt's ability to defend the post while staying out of foul trouble.

Overall
A few early season struggles are likely for this team as they come into their own. However, by mid-season expect the team to really turn some heads as they hit their stride. The Zags win the WCC tournament once again and get a 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. This team is a big surpirse in tourny because of their experience and balance. Makes the first Elite Eight run since 1999. As Heytvelt matures and Bouldin emerges as a key contributor, prospects for 2007 are higher than ever for the Zags.

Starting
PG - Pargo - 12pts, 4asts
SG - Raivio - 16pts, 3asts
SF - Pendo - 8pts, 9rbs
PF - Mallon - 12pts, 7rbs
C - Heytvelt - 18pts, 8rbs

6th Men - P-Mac/Bouldin (Couldn't pick one)

Team Stats
Pts - 82 pts
TO- 15

Record: 23-10 (11-3 WCC) (9-6 Non-Conference)

Other
First Team All-WCC - Raivio and Heytvelt
WCC Freshman of the Year - Matt Bouldin
WCC Defensive Player of the Year - P-Mac

Key Wins - Washington, Nevada, Memphis

Endless Summer 2006

2006-08-10T09:18:00.000-07:00

Oh, how I don't want this summer to end.

Its been quite an amazing summer for me, filled with many great stories and memories. Bike trips in the San Juan Islands, Bacholer Parties in Tahoe, and my latest just returning from an INCREDIBLE trip in Costa Rica. This picture is taken from the beach in Costa Rica and was one of the most amazing sunsets I've ever seen. It just kept getting better with each moment.

TIWAA!

Israel Kamakawiwo

2006-04-06T10:25:00.000-07:00

My favorite song right now is Somewhere Under the Rainbow by Israel Kamakawiwo'ole. Every time I listen to it I feel like I'm back on the beach in Maui.

A True Competitor

2006-03-24T20:01:00.000-08:00

I saw this and had to post it. Its exactly what I love about watching Adam Morrison play. The ferocity, passion, and will to win that he has is incredible.

From the Detroit Free Press:

Nobody loathes losing anymore. Nobody gets downright sick at the notion of not playing anymore. There's a moment of disappointment and then it's on to the next diversion. But Morrison proves there remains a distinction between competitive drive and competitive obsession. And that's usually the difference between stars and champions.

Great Season Zags!

2006-03-24T10:58:00.000-08:00

What a season. I couldn't be more proud of Gonzaga, the team, and its players. They played their hearts out. Thank you for all the wonderful memories.

Tournament Time!

2006-03-16T07:08:00.000-08:00

Its the best time of year once again. The NCAA Basketball Tourney begins today and I couldn't be more excited. I'm hoping Gonzaga will play with a chip on their shoulder this year and look like the scrappy, hungry team of old.

It will be very interesting to see how some of these potential match-ups work out. A potential Gonzaga/UCLA match-up would be great to see. Also, a second round possibility of UNC/Mich. St would be another fun one to watch.

Time to sit back and watch the Madness. Go Zags!!

Law Breaker Paul

2006-02-19T13:47:00.000-08:00

The other day I was running to catch the bus and was stopped for jay walking. Absolutely, ridiculous. $46 fine and on top of that I missed my bus. Just one of those instances where you know everyone is looking at you and thinking, "Oh, that sucks."

I actually think its pretty funny, but pedestrians of downtown Seattle beware. They really do write tickets for that. It reminds me of a book I read by Gerry Spence a few years ago where he describes an instance where you are driving home late at night and stop at a stop light. In every direction there are no cars at all, but yet we still feel obligated to sit at the light because its what we are suppose to do and fear getting a ticket etc. Gerry Spence uses this example as a way of demonstrating the way rules can constrict rational thinking and behavior.

Great point, but I had a hard time explaining that to the officer when he was writing me a ticket...

Super Bowl was Decided by the Officals

2006-02-06T17:18:00.000-08:00

It was very unfortunate to see the Seahawks lose the Super Bowl in what in my opinion was a game decided by the officals. Yes, the Steelers made the big plays and you have to give them credit. However, the whole flow of the game was changed by the calls the officals made. A game on that stage should be decided by the players. End of story.

Bainbridge Island

2006-02-04T15:21:00.000-08:00

Last weekend my mom was up in Seattle for a yoga seminar and we took the ferry over to Bainbridge Island. Really fun trip. Bainbridge Island is beautiful. We looked at the sail boats, which was fun. I definitely want to get into sailing more this summer. I've only sailed out on Flathead Lake with my parents, but I really would like to get out on the ocean some time.

Congratulations Ronny Turiaf!

2006-01-17T22:16:00.000-08:00

Ronny Turiaf has re-signed a contract with the Los Angeles Lakers six months after under-going open heart surgery.

Quite an amazing accomplishment. The humbleness, class, and heart that he has shown throughout his career makes me proud to be a Zag. Best of luck in the NBA.

Happy Holidays!

2005-12-30T07:04:00.000-08:00

I had a fantastic Christmas down in San Diego and Santa Maria. Got to spend a lot of time with the family and a lot of time sleeping, which is always good. Steph went with my parents and I to the Wild Animal Park. Since we are members, it was our second time there in a month :) There is so much to learn though that it never gets old. Here's a good pic of Steph and I there.

Happy Holidays!

Missing Firenze

2005-10-06T13:38:00.000-07:00

Good Luck Mario! Be Safe!

2005-09-29T07:43:00.000-07:00

I spoke with my friend Mario the other night. He is leaving for his second tour in Iraq.

Mario, We all are thinking of you over there. Take care of yourself and Be Safe!

Another Great Weekend in Glacier

2005-09-06T13:07:00.000-07:00

Spent last week on vacation in Glacier. That place is so amazing! Steph and I first stayed at a little cottage in Polson, this tiny little town right on the edge of Flathead Lake. It was the perfect getaway for a few days before we went camping in Glacier. We spent another 3 days up in the park doing day hikes. Glacier is just incredible and we really lucked out with the weather. I will try to post some pics later.

I'd definitely like to get back up there for some longer backpacking trips. Next summer I really want to do Rainier. We'll see though, I need to rally some of the folks in Seattle to go with me.

One to go!

2005-08-18T12:52:00.000-07:00

I found out I passed my second level of the CFA exam yesterday! What a relief! I was going to go crazy if I had to study all that material all over again. I ended up doing pretty well, so that feels good. Its nice that all the hard work paid off.

I'll take Level III next June, so I have a nice break before I start studying for the last part. One more to go!

Soprano's

2005-08-15T07:56:00.000-07:00

Watched Season 5 of the Soprano's this weekend. I think its definitely one of the better seasons. Its amazing how I can watch the show and see Tony murder like 5 people and then five minutes later say, "Gosh, he's not such a bad guy."

Its not the same watching Sopranos without the 708 crew. I hope the whole series ends with Tony sitting by his pool and his ducks come back.

TVIP and VoIP

2005-08-12T09:47:00.000-07:00

Successful solutions in developing fiber-to-the-home or fiber-to-the-node will greatly increase processing speeds and will eventually make TVIP and VoIP more viable. While creating this fiber infrastructure will be expensive (Verizon, SBC are both making significant investments) the adoption of technologies such as TVIP and VoIP should be rapid as the increased fiber bandwidth will provide a better platform than traditional phone and cable (there was a recent WSJ article that articulated this very well). People that I have talked to that currently have VoIP say the quality isn't there yet, but the technology is developing very quickly.

I am also interested to see how this merger between Sprint and Nextel plays out. As I understand it the development of 4G will allow a user to have streamless online access throughout anywhere in the country. They're pushing what they call the "third screen". One and two being the Television and PC. Mobile phones, PDA's that have TV and PC capabilities. If there is one sure thing, those with the greatest library of content will thrive as new platforms of distribution develop.

There seems to be a lot of opportunities in the Podcasting space, which is an area I plan on learning more about. Perhaps, Apple has some sort of competitive advantage locked up already, but its absolutely worth taking a look at. There would be so many niches there that could be developed before someone eventually comes in to consolidate.

More Glacier Pics

2005-08-04T07:18:00.000-07:00

Glacier

2005-08-04T07:09:00.000-07:00

I was up in Glacier a few weeks ago with Steph and my parents. We were only there for an afternoon, but I will definitely be back up for some backpacking. The park is just incredible. It looks like another world.

Becoming an Italian

2005-07-29T14:20:00.000-07:00

Great excerpt from a website I was looking at about what it takes to move from America to Italy...

"Learn not to do anything. It's what many Italians do best--and most Italians I know will consider that a compliment. In fact, people get very creative here to keep from being creative. Strikes every other week, stores that stay open for 5 hours a day, these are just a couple of nationally accepted methods of not doing anything. When you first get here, you will probably have an urge to be active at every moment of the day, as this is considered a virtue in our fast-paced American culture. In Italy, it is considered rude, and is a good way to earn enemies. Relax, sit down, smoke a cigarette."

Socrates Society

2005-06-27T08:21:00.000-07:00

Spent last weekend back home with the folks. It was very good to see them and great to spend some time back at home. My dad took us to a bluegrass music festival, which was fun. It made me want to learn how to play the banjo.

I'll be heading to Aspen, CO this weekend for the Aspen Institute Socrates Society program. Should be a great experience and I hope to learn a lot from the different speakers. The seminar I'm participating in is called, "Future Perspectives" We will discuss how future scenerio's unfold and how they are influenced by social, political, economic, and technological change. I just got my readings in the mail that I need to complete and they look pretty extensive. Also, I hope to be attending a benefit dinner where Senator Barack Obama will be speaking. No doubt, that will be an amazing experience.

Another Epic Weekend...

2005-06-20T07:50:00.000-07:00

It was another Epic Weekend for the 1st Annual Tilford Luau. Bros, Beers, Basketball, and Poker. What else do you need? Highlights of the weekend include:

Break yourself!! - Oh, Its Wayne Brady son!
Tall Tom rejecting Tom Black in basketball and then giving him a chest bump afterwards
Listening to the relentless trash talk of Joey Smith and Tilford in pickle ball
Eatting freshly cooked pig right off the bone - primal
Sam H. in the dog house - "She will bear the fruit of my loins!"
Gleas ends his night early with a 12 parts rum and 1 part coke cocktail
Tilford dances on the boat, has too much fun and jumps in the lake
Mary J. and Karen P. the best on-court duo since Stockton and Malone. (Prince can ball)
Ivers continues to be a habitual line crosser - a dull knife and an empty eye socket, hidi
The Tilford family is absolutely the coolest ever.
Congrats to Joe and Meredith on the engagement!!

It was great seeing everyone. Can't wait until next year's luau!

Free at Last!

2005-06-08T08:48:00.000-07:00

Finished the Level 2 exam this weekend. Feels so great to be done. Now, I have to wait until the end of summer just to find out if I passed and to see if I get to do this all over again.

Its been a long year of studying. I basically haven't stopped since last July. The exam was very difficult and all I remember now are the stupid errors I made. Thats bound to happen, but its amazing how prepared I was for the exam and it still exploited weaknesses that I didn't even know I had. Very surprised to see such an emphasis on Leases and Corp. Finance, which were two minor areas of the accounting material. Also, it seemed like there were some very subjective questions on there, especially for a multiple choice test.

Thats the game though, you gotta know everything. Leaving for San Diego today. It will awesome to see Steph for 5 days in a row!

Greetings from Canada

2005-05-12T17:07:00.000-07:00

Just about finished with my week long seminar up here in Windsor, Canada. It definitely was valuable in helping me focus on some of my more weak areas before the exam. We took a very difficult practice exam today and I did ok. I still have some sections I need to clean up before test time though.

Word of the day

2005-04-17T11:42:00.000-07:00

Today's word is hetroskedasticity, which describes non-constant variance across a sample of observations.

Yes, see statistics can be fun.

The P-Value, the title of my blog, is another statistics term, which represents the smallest possible value that a hypothesis test can be rejected. I just thought that would be more original than "The World According to Paul."

Building Your Pyramid

2005-04-08T21:52:00.000-07:00

I was thinking today about what it must have been like for the workers who built the pyramids in Egypt. It must have looked impossible when they started. However, day by day they laid the stones and over time the pyramid started to take shape. The more stones they laid the closer they were to their objective, until ultimately the pyramid was done.

I'm thinking about the stones I lay down everyday in creating my own pyramid. "Pyramid" being a metaphor of course for whatever goal or vision drives you. Everyday we each either lay down stones in building our pyramid or we don't. We need to be proactive about laying down stones everyday or it will never take shape.

I'm done speaking in metaphors, but I think its an interesting way of thinking about achieving ones goal. Have you been laying down the stones to build your pyramid or do you just hope that one day you will wake up and it will be built?

Perhaps a better question is, what are you trying to build and is that really what you want to be creating?

When I get my life back...

2005-03-27T09:57:00.000-08:00

I keep thinking about all the things I will do once I am done with all this studying for the CFA. My top ten:

See my Girlfriend!
Train for Triathlon
Read some non-financial books for a change, I have them waiting (Constantine's Sword, Michelangelo and the Pope's Ceiling, Good to Great and, of course, the next Harry Potter when it comes out)
Backpacking in Glacier
Sailing with the family
Coach basketball team w/ Special Olympics
Attend Socrates Society seminar
Get back into Painting
Attend the First Annual Mike Tilford Luau
Travis's Wedding in Cape Cod

2 more months to go.

NCAA Depression Setting In

2005-03-19T19:30:00.000-08:00

Very ugly last five minutes for the Zags against Texas Tech. See my post a few months ago about Gonzaga's use of the zone. I wonder if Ross still would have been so open for that three pointer if we had been playing man-to-man? There were some tough breaks and questionable calls, but WAY too many TO's at the end. Very sad to see us lose like that, but great season for GU regardless. Gotta feel bad for Turiaf, hopefully he can make some good showings at the pre-draft camps. Few was just outcoached by Bobby Knight at the end of that game.

My bracket is completely busted. Syracuse and GU out in the first weekend, there's forty bucks I'll never see again.

Jaycee Carroll, Representing the Wyoming Ballers

2005-03-15T19:14:00.000-08:00

If you get a chance check out Jaycee Carroll on the Utah State Aggies. The kid can flat out play and even better, he is a Wyoming native. The freshmen was second in the NCAA in 3-point % behind Salem Stoudimire and made the difference in the big win over Pacific to send the Aggies dancin in the tourney. Looks like the game versus Arizona in first round could be quite a shoot-out. Carroll averaged 39 points a game in high school, so you know he isn't afraid to put the ball up.

Jaycee, I'm pullin for you man. Best of Luck in the tourney!

Housing Market Bubble

2005-03-06T21:59:00.000-08:00

I was reading an interesting article about real estate prices and the bubble that has developed in the market. Something like 31% of all home purchases are now considered "investments" by the buyer and real estate purchases for second homes, vacation property, etc. has sky rocketed over the past few years. With builders in many high profile areas continuing to create a massive supply and the market for available renters near a low it seems something will have to give. Hence, real estate prices need to come down.

A considerable amount of these home purchases are made with adjustable rate mortgages and some being 100% financed. As interest rates continue to rise, as it seems very logical to assume they will from current levels, it is inevitable that there will be an increasing number of defaults on ARM loans. The Fed seems committed to increasing interest rates at a steady pace, but if rates suddenly increased at a much higher than expected level the market could burst creating a buying opportunity as panic sellers rush to get out of their "investment properties".

Some areas of course will be immune to a real estate correction, i.e. Manhattan, where demand will always exceed supply, but in certain markets there has to be some type of decrease on the horizon.

You never know though. I think it was Roy Rogers or someone like that who said, "Land, they aren't making any more of it."

2005-02-11T15:29:00.000-08:00

"On Tour 2000"

Memories from Ireland. I still have nightmares of Gleason running the streets of Kilkenny.

Thoughts from Sun Valley

2005-02-03T22:17:00.000-08:00

I just recently got back from the Micron Analyst Conference in Sun Valley. They definitely put on a great presentation. The company is about as well positioned as can be expected. Future potential looks good, although, in this type of commodity industry its all about the supply and demand metrics.

There was an interesting discussion about future demand for home servers, which will be increasingly necessary as the home becomes more digital. Right now most homes are starting to have more than two computers and it won't be long before mainstream consumers will be needing servers at home to keep up. As home media centers rise in popularity this will also increase the demand for extra storage. Micron seems pretty well positioned too take advantage of these trends, but there are also a lot of strong competitors out there who want a piece of the action as well. Such a tough industry. It wouldn't be my first choice of a market that I would want to compete in thats for sure.

Also, this weekend I learned that I need a plasma TV. Not that this was a new revelation be any means, but my hotel room had a huge plasma screen and it was soooo nice! Watching the GU game on it was pure heaven. I really liked Sun Valley, the skiing was pretty good for there not being much snow and the town is a lot of fun. When I was at the pub after dinner I ran into Kate O'Farrell, my little sister Seton. She lives in Sun Valley and it was really great catching up with her. I swear I run into someone from Gonzaga everywhere I go. She seems to be doing very well and I can think of a lot worse places to be than Sun Valley...

All in all a great weekend. Unfortunately, I have plenty of studying this weekend to keep me busy. I plan on checking out the movie Sideways. For all you guys in Seattle I hope Tall Tom doesn't take everyones money in poker. That man cannot be trusted at a card table.

P

Statistics is less than optimal

2005-01-24T22:02:00.000-08:00

Well, it was only a matter of time before Paul starting bitching about studying for the CFA. I will try to keep the whining to a minimum. Starting to study again is not fun, but at least a lot of the material will be review and I just got done with it.

On a brighter note, I'm almost done with the book Bringing Down the House. Its about a bunch of MIT kids who make millions off Vegas playing Blackjack. I would love to come up with a scam like that! Basically, coming up with a pure arbitrage opportunity off statistical methods and strategy. Pure genius, I love it! If that doesn't inspire me to learn my statistics sections I don't know what will. Highly recommend this book, especially to all my former card dealing bro's.

I'm listening to Petey Pablo right now. The man just astounds me with his lyrical prowess.

P

Gonzaga get out of the zone

2005-01-22T14:22:00.000-08:00

I didn't get to watch the GU game against San Francisco, but the box score is telling enough. USF hit something like 10 three pointers. Its too reminiscent of the St. Mary's game where they hit 17 3's. Are we that slow on defense that we can't even play man-to-man against WCC teams? I understand going zone against Illinois and Georgia Tech, where we are obviously playing against superior athletes, but come on in the WCC? I think GU should at least be able to play some straight up defense and not leave the game open to a hot streak of 3-point shooting.

It really doesn't matter what defense we are in if no one is aggressive, which sounds like that was the case against USF. Hopefully, we come out against USD tonight with a better mentality on the defensive end.

Guinness and Basketball, it just doesn't mix

2005-01-11T15:57:00.000-08:00

Montana City League Basketball, Its Fantastic! It was another thrilling victory for my city league basketball team last night. We faced a team named, Transition, which I have been told is the city league team for inmates at the county correctional facility. Their defense wasn't very good and we dismantled them pretty easily within the first half eventually winning by 20 or so.

I just want to say for future reference, Guinness and Basketball do not mix well. This weekend I had probably 3 pints of the black nectar and it really must have weighed me down because I was abnormally tired during our game Monday night.

Maybe thats why there aren't very many great ball players coming out of Ireland. As the saying goes, "God invented Beer, so the Irish wouldn't take over the world."

P

Ponte Vecchio

2005-01-07T16:55:00.000-08:00

I miss Firenze...

Just Starting

2005-01-07T14:57:00.000-08:00

Well, I've got on the blog bandwagon. I don't know how much I will be able to update this, but I'll give it a shot.

P