Happy Holidays!

I had a fantastic Christmas down in San Diego and Santa Maria. Got to spend a lot of time with the family and a lot of time sleeping, which is always good. Steph went with my parents and I to the Wild Animal Park. Since we are members, it was our second time there in a month :) There is so much to learn though that it never gets old. Here's a good pic of Steph and I there.

Happy Holidays!

Missing Firenze

Good Luck Mario! Be Safe!

I spoke with my friend Mario the other night. He is leaving for his second tour in Iraq.

Mario, We all are thinking of you over there. Take care of yourself and Be Safe!

Another Great Weekend in Glacier

Spent last week on vacation in Glacier. That place is so amazing! Steph and I first stayed at a little cottage in Polson, this tiny little town right on the edge of Flathead Lake. It was the perfect getaway for a few days before we went camping in Glacier. We spent another 3 days up in the park doing day hikes. Glacier is just incredible and we really lucked out with the weather. I will try to post some pics later.

I'd definitely like to get back up there for some longer backpacking trips. Next summer I really want to do Rainier. We'll see though, I need to rally some of the folks in Seattle to go with me.

One to go!

I found out I passed my second level of the CFA exam yesterday! What a relief! I was going to go crazy if I had to study all that material all over again. I ended up doing pretty well, so that feels good. Its nice that all the hard work paid off.

I'll take Level III next June, so I have a nice break before I start studying for the last part. One more to go!

Soprano's

Watched Season 5 of the Soprano's this weekend. I think its definitely one of the better seasons. Its amazing how I can watch the show and see Tony murder like 5 people and then five minutes later say, "Gosh, he's not such a bad guy."

Its not the same watching Sopranos without the 708 crew. I hope the whole series ends with Tony sitting by his pool and his ducks come back.

TVIP and VoIP

Successful solutions in developing fiber-to-the-home or fiber-to-the-node will greatly increase processing speeds and will eventually make TVIP and VoIP more viable. While creating this fiber infrastructure will be expensive (Verizon, SBC are both making significant investments) the adoption of technologies such as TVIP and VoIP should be rapid as the increased fiber bandwidth will provide a better platform than traditional phone and cable (there was a recent WSJ article that articulated this very well). People that I have talked to that currently have VoIP say the quality isn't there yet, but the technology is developing very quickly.

I am also interested to see how this merger between Sprint and Nextel plays out. As I understand it the development of 4G will allow a user to have streamless online access throughout anywhere in the country. They're pushing what they call the "third screen". One and two being the Television and PC. Mobile phones, PDA's that have TV and PC capabilities. If there is one sure thing, those with the greatest library of content will thrive as new platforms of distribution develop.

There seems to be a lot of opportunities in the Podcasting space, which is an area I plan on learning more about. Perhaps, Apple has some sort of competitive advantage locked up already, but its absolutely worth taking a look at. There would be so many niches there that could be developed before someone eventually comes in to consolidate.

More Glacier Pics

Glacier

I was up in Glacier a few weeks ago with Steph and my parents. We were only there for an afternoon, but I will definitely be back up for some backpacking. The park is just incredible. It looks like another world.

Becoming an Italian

Great excerpt from a website I was looking at about what it takes to move from America to Italy...

"Learn not to do anything. It's what many Italians do best--and most Italians I know will consider that a compliment. In fact, people get very creative here to keep from being creative. Strikes every other week, stores that stay open for 5 hours a day, these are just a couple of nationally accepted methods of not doing anything. When you first get here, you will probably have an urge to be active at every moment of the day, as this is considered a virtue in our fast-paced American culture. In Italy, it is considered rude, and is a good way to earn enemies. Relax, sit down, smoke a cigarette."

Socrates Society

Spent last weekend back home with the folks. It was very good to see them and great to spend some time back at home. My dad took us to a bluegrass music festival, which was fun. It made me want to learn how to play the banjo.

I'll be heading to Aspen, CO this weekend for the Aspen Institute Socrates Society program. Should be a great experience and I hope to learn a lot from the different speakers. The seminar I'm participating in is called, "Future Perspectives" We will discuss how future scenerio's unfold and how they are influenced by social, political, economic, and technological change. I just got my readings in the mail that I need to complete and they look pretty extensive. Also, I hope to be attending a benefit dinner where Senator Barack Obama will be speaking. No doubt, that will be an amazing experience.

Another Epic Weekend...

It was another Epic Weekend for the 1st Annual Tilford Luau. Bros, Beers, Basketball, and Poker. What else do you need? Highlights of the weekend include:

• Break yourself!! - Oh, Its Wayne Brady son!
• Tall Tom rejecting Tom Black in basketball and then giving him a chest bump afterwards
• Listening to the relentless trash talk of Joey Smith and Tilford in pickle ball
• Eatting freshly cooked pig right off the bone - primal
• Sam H. in the dog house - "She will bear the fruit of my loins!"
• Gleas ends his night early with a 12 parts rum and 1 part coke cocktail
• Tilford dances on the boat, has too much fun and jumps in the lake
• Mary J. and Karen P. the best on-court duo since Stockton and Malone. (Prince can ball)
• Ivers continues to be a habitual line crosser - a dull knife and an empty eye socket, hidi
• The Tilford family is absolutely the coolest ever.
• Congrats to Joe and Meredith on the engagement!!

It was great seeing everyone. Can't wait until next year's luau!

Free at Last!

Finished the Level 2 exam this weekend. Feels so great to be done. Now, I have to wait until the end of summer just to find out if I passed and to see if I get to do this all over again.

Its been a long year of studying. I basically haven't stopped since last July. The exam was very difficult and all I remember now are the stupid errors I made. Thats bound to happen, but its amazing how prepared I was for the exam and it still exploited weaknesses that I didn't even know I had. Very surprised to see such an emphasis on Leases and Corp. Finance, which were two minor areas of the accounting material. Also, it seemed like there were some very subjective questions on there, especially for a multiple choice test.

Thats the game though, you gotta know everything. Leaving for San Diego today. It will awesome to see Steph for 5 days in a row!

Greetings from Canada

Just about finished with my week long seminar up here in Windsor, Canada. It definitely was valuable in helping me focus on some of my more weak areas before the exam. We took a very difficult practice exam today and I did ok. I still have some sections I need to clean up before test time though.

Word of the day

Today's word is hetroskedasticity, which describes non-constant variance across a sample of observations.

Yes, see statistics can be fun.

The P-Value, the title of my blog, is another statistics term, which represents the smallest possible value that a hypothesis test can be rejected. I just thought that would be more original than "The World According to Paul."

Building Your Pyramid

I was thinking today about what it must have been like for the workers who built the pyramids in Egypt. It must have looked impossible when they started. However, day by day they laid the stones and over time the pyramid started to take shape. The more stones they laid the closer they were to their objective, until ultimately the pyramid was done.

I'm thinking about the stones I lay down everyday in creating my own pyramid. "Pyramid" being a metaphor of course for whatever goal or vision drives you. Everyday we each either lay down stones in building our pyramid or we don't. We need to be proactive about laying down stones everyday or it will never take shape.

I'm done speaking in metaphors, but I think its an interesting way of thinking about achieving ones goal. Have you been laying down the stones to build your pyramid or do you just hope that one day you will wake up and it will be built?

Perhaps a better question is, what are you trying to build and is that really what you want to be creating?

When I get my life back...

I keep thinking about all the things I will do once I am done with all this studying for the CFA. My top ten:

1. See my Girlfriend!
2. Train for Triathlon
3. Read some non-financial books for a change, I have them waiting (Constantine's Sword, Michelangelo and the Pope's Ceiling, Good to Great and, of course, the next Harry Potter when it comes out)
4. Backpacking in Glacier
5. Sailing with the family
6. Coach basketball team w/ Special Olympics
7. Attend Socrates Society seminar
8. Get back into Painting
9. Attend the First Annual Mike Tilford Luau
10. Travis's Wedding in Cape Cod

2 more months to go.

NCAA Depression Setting In

Very ugly last five minutes for the Zags against Texas Tech. See my post a few months ago about Gonzaga's use of the zone. I wonder if Ross still would have been so open for that three pointer if we had been playing man-to-man? There were some tough breaks and questionable calls, but WAY too many TO's at the end. Very sad to see us lose like that, but great season for GU regardless. Gotta feel bad for Turiaf, hopefully he can make some good showings at the pre-draft camps. Few was just outcoached by Bobby Knight at the end of that game.

My bracket is completely busted. Syracuse and GU out in the first weekend, there's forty bucks I'll never see again.

Jaycee Carroll, Representing the Wyoming Ballers

If you get a chance check out Jaycee Carroll on the Utah State Aggies. The kid can flat out play and even better, he is a Wyoming native. The freshmen was second in the NCAA in 3-point % behind Salem Stoudimire and made the difference in the big win over Pacific to send the Aggies dancin in the tourney. Looks like the game versus Arizona in first round could be quite a shoot-out. Carroll averaged 39 points a game in high school, so you know he isn't afraid to put the ball up.

Jaycee, I'm pullin for you man. Best of Luck in the tourney!

Housing Market Bubble

I was reading an interesting article about real estate prices and the bubble that has developed in the market. Something like 31% of all home purchases are now considered "investments" by the buyer and real estate purchases for second homes, vacation property, etc. has sky rocketed over the past few years. With builders in many high profile areas continuing to create a massive supply and the market for available renters near a low it seems something will have to give. Hence, real estate prices need to come down.

A considerable amount of these home purchases are made with adjustable rate mortgages and some being 100% financed. As interest rates continue to rise, as it seems very logical to assume they will from current levels, it is inevitable that there will be an increasing number of defaults on ARM loans. The Fed seems committed to increasing interest rates at a steady pace, but if rates suddenly increased at a much higher than expected level the market could burst creating a buying opportunity as panic sellers rush to get out of their "investment properties".

Some areas of course will be immune to a real estate correction, i.e. Manhattan, where demand will always exceed supply, but in certain markets there has to be some type of decrease on the horizon.

You never know though. I think it was Roy Rogers or someone like that who said, "Land, they aren't making any more of it."

"On Tour 2000"

Memories from Ireland. I still have nightmares of Gleason running the streets of Kilkenny.

Thoughts from Sun Valley

I just recently got back from the Micron Analyst Conference in Sun Valley. They definitely put on a great presentation. The company is about as well positioned as can be expected. Future potential looks good, although, in this type of commodity industry its all about the supply and demand metrics.

There was an interesting discussion about future demand for home servers, which will be increasingly necessary as the home becomes more digital. Right now most homes are starting to have more than two computers and it won't be long before mainstream consumers will be needing servers at home to keep up. As home media centers rise in popularity this will also increase the demand for extra storage. Micron seems pretty well positioned too take advantage of these trends, but there are also a lot of strong competitors out there who want a piece of the action as well. Such a tough industry. It wouldn't be my first choice of a market that I would want to compete in thats for sure.

Also, this weekend I learned that I need a plasma TV. Not that this was a new revelation be any means, but my hotel room had a huge plasma screen and it was soooo nice! Watching the GU game on it was pure heaven. I really liked Sun Valley, the skiing was pretty good for there not being much snow and the town is a lot of fun. When I was at the pub after dinner I ran into Kate O'Farrell, my little sister Seton. She lives in Sun Valley and it was really great catching up with her. I swear I run into someone from Gonzaga everywhere I go. She seems to be doing very well and I can think of a lot worse places to be than Sun Valley...

All in all a great weekend. Unfortunately, I have plenty of studying this weekend to keep me busy. I plan on checking out the movie Sideways. For all you guys in Seattle I hope Tall Tom doesn't take everyones money in poker. That man cannot be trusted at a card table.

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Statistics is less than optimal

Well, it was only a matter of time before Paul starting bitching about studying for the CFA. I will try to keep the whining to a minimum. Starting to study again is not fun, but at least a lot of the material will be review and I just got done with it.

On a brighter note, I'm almost done with the book Bringing Down the House. Its about a bunch of MIT kids who make millions off Vegas playing Blackjack. I would love to come up with a scam like that! Basically, coming up with a pure arbitrage opportunity off statistical methods and strategy. Pure genius, I love it! If that doesn't inspire me to learn my statistics sections I don't know what will. Highly recommend this book, especially to all my former card dealing bro's.

I'm listening to Petey Pablo right now. The man just astounds me with his lyrical prowess.

P

Gonzaga get out of the zone

I didn't get to watch the GU game against San Francisco, but the box score is telling enough. USF hit something like 10 three pointers. Its too reminiscent of the St. Mary's game where they hit 17 3's. Are we that slow on defense that we can't even play man-to-man against WCC teams? I understand going zone against Illinois and Georgia Tech, where we are obviously playing against superior athletes, but come on in the WCC? I think GU should at least be able to play some straight up defense and not leave the game open to a hot streak of 3-point shooting.

It really doesn't matter what defense we are in if no one is aggressive, which sounds like that was the case against USF. Hopefully, we come out against USD tonight with a better mentality on the defensive end.

Guinness and Basketball, it just doesn't mix

Montana City League Basketball, Its Fantastic! It was another thrilling victory for my city league basketball team last night. We faced a team named, Transition, which I have been told is the city league team for inmates at the county correctional facility. Their defense wasn't very good and we dismantled them pretty easily within the first half eventually winning by 20 or so.

I just want to say for future reference, Guinness and Basketball do not mix well. This weekend I had probably 3 pints of the black nectar and it really must have weighed me down because I was abnormally tired during our game Monday night.

Maybe thats why there aren't very many great ball players coming out of Ireland. As the saying goes, "God invented Beer, so the Irish wouldn't take over the world."

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Ponte Vecchio

I miss Firenze...

Just Starting

Well, I've got on the blog bandwagon. I don't know how much I will be able to update this, but I'll give it a shot.

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